印度经济5年超越中国?外国网友打脸经济学家...

2020-01-06 14:16:45 | 来源: | 参与: 0

  回顾2019年,无论是发达经济体还是发展中国家,经济增速整体都出现了不同程度的下滑——财政赤字创新高,债务总量不断上涨、利率倒挂、投资和出口增长疲软。

  按照IMF(国际货币基金组织)的预测,2019年全球GDP总量预计上升为86.6万亿美元,中国经济总量或为14.14万亿美元,约为全球总量的16.33%,继续是全球第二大经济体;日本的2019年GDP预计为5.15万亿美元,全球占比约为5.95%;预计印度的GDP为2.9万亿美元左右,全球占比约为3.35%。

  整体来看,2019年中国、日本、印度经济占全球的比例大体稳定或略有提升。但印度的经济增速却不是很理想——2018年还高达7%,但在2019年预计可能仅实际增长4.9%甚至更低....

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  然而,就是在这样的情形下,以英美、印度等国金融界为代表的不少经济学家,依旧笃定印度的经济增长,将在五年内超越中国!

  1、Steve Lee

  I love how “most economists” (meaning they are westerners, or non-westerners who work primarily in the west or for western institutions) make such a vague statement to protect their reputations in case their prediction does not come to fruition. Economy is a discipline that looks good on the surface but mostly fails in practice. I envy the position of economists. They can call themselves experts and enjoy the prestige that comes with it by being wrong a lot of times.

  我喜欢“大多数经济学家”(意思是他们是西方人,或主要在西方工作或为西方机构工作的非西方人)如何含糊其辞地声明,以保护他们的声誉,以防他们的预测没有结果。经济是一门表面上看起来不错,但实际上却大多失败的学科。我羡慕经济学家的地位。他们可以称自己为专家,并享受与之相伴的威望,以及多次准许错误的权利

  The dearth of respondents of Chinese ancestry shows the lack of interests of Chinese people in this topic. Chinese are not concerned at all if India would surpass China.

  中国血统受访者的缺乏,说明中国人对这个话题缺乏兴趣。中国人根本不担心印度是否会超过中国。

  2、Victor Tan

  I wonder why are Indians so obsessed nowadays to talk about India surpassing China rather than aspiring to surpass the US?

  我想知道为什么印度人现在如此痴迷于谈论印度超越中国而不是渴望超越美国?

  These flashy tables and statistics while making arguments look compelling is a pcs of waffle with very little meaning and has ignored the fundamental problems that impede Indian’s development.

  这些华而不实的表格和统计数据虽然让人觉得论点很有说服力,但却只是一堆毫无意义的华夫饼,忽视了阻碍印度发展的根本问题。

  India as it is today was a creation of british colonialism. It is so diverse and does not have a common lineage nor langauage, rendering impossible for any Indian leader to address this so called world biggest democracy in Hindi or any other language and be understood by the entire nation.

  今天的印度是英国殖皿煮义的产物。它是如此的多样化,没有共同的血统和语言,使得任何印度领导人都不可能用印地语或任何其他语言来表达这个所谓的世界最大的皿煮,并被整个民族所理解。

  China, despite also experiencing diversity (to a lesser extent compared to India as it is predorminatly Han people) was already a unified country with common language since Qin Shih Huang Di (the emperor known for building the great wall of China) emerged as its ruler more than 2 thousand years ago.

  中国,尽管也经历了多样性(与印度相比,其程度要小一些,因为它是先于汉族的)自从两千多年前秦始皇(以修建中国长城而闻名的皇帝)成为其统治者以来,已经是一个统一的、有共同语言的国家。

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  What makes a nation great hinges on its population composition.

  一个国家的伟大取决于它的人口构成。

  The caste system (though may have been constitutionally outlawed during the days of mahatma Gandhi) remained deeply entrenched in Indian’s society. This adversely impede the diaspora of the smartest or brightest genes within Indian society.

  种姓制度(尽管在圣雄甘地时代可能在宪法上是非法的)在印度社会中仍然根深蒂固。这对印度社会中最聪明或最聪明的基因的散居造成了不利影响。

  The Indian smartest and brightest often seek greener pastures outside India (like the Silicon Valley or Wall Street). Conversely it is also true the world brightest would chose not to come to India.

  印度最聪明的人经常在印度以外寻找更绿色的牧场(比如硅谷或华尔街)。相反,世界上最聪明的人也会选择不来印度。

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